Tuesday, February 1, 2011

E.U. officials make plea for 'orderly transition'

The statement by E.U. foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday came alongside a decision to impose sanctions on the ousted Tunisian president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.
Despite worries that the popular uprising in Egypt might be hijacked by forces hostile to Western interests, foreign ministers from the European Union on Monday called for an orderly transition, saying they supported substantial democratic reform and free and fair elections there.
The ministers' statement came alongside a decision to impose sanctions on the ousted Tunisian president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, a leader with whom several key European nations had strong ties until his recent overthrow.
The discussion Monday among E.U. foreign ministers in Brussels underlined the extent to which the 27-nation bloc has struggled to keep pace with the pace of change and the scale of unrest in the Arab world.
For days, E.U. leaders have been torn between instinctive support for exponents of the democratic values that Europeans espouse and worries that the instability might produce a problematic leadership in a strategic neighbor.
"There is a risk of extremist politics taking a greater hold or a more authoritarian system being adopted," said William Hague, the British foreign secretary. Mr. Hague added that the situation was "fraught with dangers" and, though he declined to discuss how soon elections should take place in Egypt, he argued that "it is an urgent matter to get on with that orderly transition."
Alex Stubb, the Finnish foreign minister, said: "It is values versus interests. On the values side we want democracy, freedom and human rights. On the interest side we don't know what we will get. We want stability -- we don't know what is stable -- is it the current regime? The E.U.'s current answer is 'no."'
Though several ministers voiced concerns, their statement suggested that only democracy can bring stability, and did not include praise for the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak.
"There is always an element of worry when there is democratic transition," Mr. Stubb added. "Democracy doesn't always go right, but that's part of the appeal of democracy."
The moves in Brussels follow comments over the weekend, when Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Nicolas Sarkozy and Prime Minister David Cameron issued a joint appeal calling for free elections in Egypt but also praising the moderating influence of Mr. Mubarak.
On Monday, Mrs. Merkel, during a visit to Israel, expressed concern about the situation in Egypt, while expressing hoping that Israeli-Palestinian peace talks could get back on track.
Still, some observers questioned whether the words from Europe would have real effect.
"The Europeans are naive into believing that the winds of democracy will come just like that to the Middle East," said a senior Israeli official based in Jerusalem.
"The Middle East is not the Eastern Europe of 1989," he said, referring to the peaceful revolutions that overthrew the Communist regimes. "This is an illusion. The potential for instability is huge but somehow the Europeans do not want to see that."
The statement agreed by the foreign ministers expressed concern at the loss of life, called for the immediate release of all peaceful demonstrators and called on the Egyptian authorities to "restore all communication networks without delay and to guarantee unhindered access to all media, including the Internet."
The statement did not call on Mr. Mubarak to stand aside, though it did ask him "to embark on an orderly transition through a broad-based government leading to a genuine process of substantial democratic reform."
This, it added, should respect human rights and pave the way for free and fair elections.
Privately, senior European officials said that they believed that Mr. Mubarak was digging in and would try hard to keep the support of the military and stay in power.
In a commentary for the European Council on Foreign Relations, Daniel Korski argued that events had placed the West, including the European Union, in a quandary.
"Should they back the protests, support what has been a friendly regime or sit uncomfortably on the fence, talking about the need to show restraint and start reforms but stand back from actually supporting regime change in case the transition becomes violent or the outcome problematic?" he said.

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